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Author: mtthwhgn

Plague and Progress

Plague and Progress

Reading Time: 4 minutes

Following incidents responders undertake debriefs to identify lessons for the responder community; I’ve participated in and facilitated many such events. However, investigation of past disasters can also reveal information on how they were caused, contributing factors and identify options for prevention or mitigation – essentialy progress is (at least partly) driven by past experience.

black death

Cries of “make way for the Plague Doctor” were heard from the back of the auditorium as Dr Carole Reeves (UCL), in long coat, beaked mask and hat, made her way to the lectern. It’s safe to say that not all lectures start as dramatically as the one I attended today, entitled Plague Bones: how London’s Black Death became a tropical disease.

The Museum of London (arguably one of my favourites) has amassed quite the collection of bones, sourced from plague pits or during the construction of the London Underground, which are made available to researchers to help analysis of past events, including the Black Death.

As a term, “Black Death” didn’t arrive until relatively recently in the 19th Century, with “plague” or “pestilence” the terms in 14th Century vogue. As an emerging (or re emerging) infectious disease there was little or no inherent population immunity. It was therefore devastating.

At the time, Plague (Yersinia pestis) was seen as a sign of a displeased deity (interestingly, Islamic doctrine at the time was that Plague was the will of God and was to be endured). However, through providing ministry to the dying, the clergy had a higher degree of exposure and was one of the hardest hit populations, with 1 in 3 perishing.

Plague doctors, their leather beaks stuffed with herbs and spices to ward off evil airs, were in short supply in the Middle Ages. However, other professions rolled up their sleeves to provide diagnosis and treatment, notably barbers (have you noticed the red and white striped pole outside some barbers – this has it’s roots as an advertisement of the practice of bloodletting). Treatments of the day included purging, cupping, cauterisation and lancing. Some more outrageous suggestions were also suggested including placing a frog on the buboes, rubbing oneself with a chickens bottom, drinking snail tea or chopping up a puppy and applying it, still warm, to the victims chest.

On the authority of the Pope, top Parisian doctors concluded the conjunction of Saturn, Jupiter and Mars in the sign of Aquarius in 1345 was the cause of the pestilence – causing the earth to “exhale poisonous vapors”. Offering some prescription, the same report advised:

No poultry should be eaten, no waterfowl, no pig, no old beef, altogether no fat meat. . . . It is injurious to sleep during the daytime. . . . Fish should not be eaten, too much exercise may be injurious . . . and nothing should be cooked in rainwater. Olive oil with food is deadly. . . . Bathing is dangerous.

With such helpful medical advice, it’s no wonder that people turned to religion and ritual; there was a strong reliance on charms and lighting of fires of juniper and rosemary to ward of the mal arias (or bad air, from which we get “malaria”).

The significant numbers of fatalities put extreme pressure on burial space, and in London, saw the construction of large emergency cemeteries, the final resting place of some 20,000 victims, some in coffins, but many in burial pits 6 deep.

Infections don’t emerge (or re-emerge) in a vacuum, their mutation is linked to climatic and, ecosystem factors, levels of health and immunity and coexisting infections. It’s thought that a contributory factor to the Black Death could have included a series of famines including The Great Famine 1315-1317, movement of military and opening of trade routes between Europe and Asia, and coexisting infections of tuberculosis, lice and intestinal parasites.

The modern plague doctor has a much more sophisticated range of tools at his disposal:

  • Border Biosecurity – ships suspected of coming from infected areas were turned away. Today, much effort goes into maintaining bio-secure borders – partly the reason that there are restrictions on what you can take on holiday with you
  • Containment – some settlements isolated themselves from the disease through isolation for 40 days (hence the term quarantine). Whilst this was only minimally effective at the time, containment was one of the response strategies during the 2009 Swine Flu Pandemic
  • Surveillance – absent in the Middle Ages, we now have vastly improved international schemes to monitor the epidemiology of human, animal, insect and plant diseases which mean that decisions can be taken much further in advance
  • Medical Treatments – a significant step on from the ‘frogs and dogs’ approach, with a continually developing understanding of the body, pharmacology and disease we now have access to a much better range of effective treatments
  • Protection – with advances in materials and understanding, we’re now able to protect ourselves against infections through hand and respiratory hygiene and barriers such as gloves and masks rather than beaked leather masks stuffed with herbs and spices.
  • General Health – again rooted in understanding of disease, the notion of germs and the rise of cleanliness, we now have access to clean water, flushing toilets and it’s difficult to imagine a situation where public health authorities recommend exercise being injurious!

plague doc modern doctor

Much of this has progress has been the result of learning stemming from past incidents. Whether the Black Death hundreds of years ago, or recent outbreaks of SARS, lessons from the past must continue to shape our preparedness for the future.

 

Image Credits: Corbis, Paul Fürst, Brian Thomas Humek,

Coming Soon – London Disaster Tours

Coming Soon – London Disaster Tours

Reading Time: 2 minutes

From Autumn 2013 mtthwhgn will be launching Disaster Tours of London.

With a long history of emergencies – from the Great Fire of London to the 2005 London Bombings, incidents of all types have befallen the city, which consistently rebounds and rebuilds itself. What is it that makes London resilient?

With such a varied history, no two walking tours will take the same route, ensuring that everyone gets a unique experience.Guided by a professional Emergency Planning Specialist, join us to discover secrets of London’s past, including:

  • The tower designed to withstand another Universal Deluge
  • The location of (and reason for) London’s first 999 call
  • The site of the London Beer Flood
  • Trace the steps of the Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko

In addition to insider information on London’s most significant emergencies, learn how you can prepare yourselves for the range of risks that London faces today.

Register you interest in Disaster Tours of London by contacting us.

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Details

When:Tag Along Tours will commence from Sept 2013 on Saturdays at 11.00am.Private tours available on request

Price: £20 per person (minimum 2 people) for ‘tag along’ tours. Private tour price on application. All tours must be booked in advance via Eventbrite.

Tour length: Approx 2 hours

Where to meet: On registering you’ll be emailed instructions and a map

All bookings come with a money-back guarantee: if you don’t love it, email us after the tour and we’ll refund the amount of your choice.

Don’t forget – if you’d be interested in joining us on a tour, let us know and we’ll add you to our mailing list.

Finding your way

Finding your way

Reading Time: 4 minutes

scout map badge

Having a sense of direction is important; more so when you’re not familiar with the area, or when it’s time critical that you leave.

Wherever you are right now, stop and indulge yourself in this little task

  1. Imagine there is an emergency and you are instructed to “go home or head North”
  2. Point in the direction of ‘home’.
  3. Point in the direction of North.
  4. Did you find that easy?

It became apparent on a recent holiday to Europe that some people struggle with this, but despite occasionally confusing left with right I’m able to get my bearings and navigate around fairly quickly and accurately. However, there will always be occasions when you need to find somewhere specific and therefore turn to a map for help. Increasingly this means tapping in a destination to a smartphone and following the directions, but there’s still the option of physical maps.

I expect that there is a lot of literature out there (like this) regarding the cognitive skills required to interpret maps, but thankfully it’s something which comes easily to me without much thought.

I had a quick think about how maps can be useful in a resilience context and came up with the following. I’m sure there are many more examples of how maps can be useful (perhaps I’ll come back to this at a later stage)

To appreciate risk – it’s fairly obvious to me that low-lying areas or those near lakes and rivers are likely to be more at risk from flooding

  • To find your way from A to B – this is probably the most obvious way that maps are useful, especially in an unfamiliar area.
  • Communicating information – being able to plot “the emergency is here” or “this road is blocked” can be much more effectively done with the aid of maps
  • To conduct a remote assessment – I need to get away from this hazard, but I know there is a steep hill/river/etc in this direction so I’ll go this way

Providing you know, and can interpret, what you’re looking at I find maps an extremely useful tool – which is why I get frustrated when they aren’t available (which seemed to be the case in both New York and Berlin!).

Having dropped out of Scouts a long time ago, I decided to take a look at their criteria. Would I still be able to obtain a Scouts badge for map reading?

  1. Understand how to use the key of an Ordnance Survey map                                 Yes, although I always get the Church symbols mixed up!
  2. Be able to use six-figure grid references                                                                    It’s been some time since I had to do this, but I’m confident I still could
  3. Explain how to find north on a map and how to set a map to north                               I wouldn’t have any difficulty with this, but ask me to convincingly use a compass and I’d be struggling
  4. Locate your home on an Ordnance Survey map                                                     This is my natural instinct when confronted with any map; where am I on this map (often this is marked on public maps)
  5. Understand contour lines on an Ordnance Survey map                                          Yes, having constructed a model of contours out of acetate at school, I think I’d be ok
  6. Be able to identify ten Ordnance Survey map symbols                                        Again, so long as it wasn’t differentiating between a Church with a tower and one with a steeple I’m confident about this
  7. Use an Ordnance Survey map during an outdoor activity                                              I haven’t done this in a long time – perhaps next time I’ll take one with me
  8. Know the first eight points of a compass and use them during an outdoor activity  Never Eat Shredded Wheat”, in fact, I think I could get all the way to 16 compass points…but asking me to use one would be my downfall.

Ok , based on that I’m awarding myself the badge (I haven’t decided where to sew it yet!).

But to go back to an earlier point – with increased reliance on smartphones – are we increasingly vulnerable? With some smartphone mapping systems not being as accurate as you’d expect, and the ever possible risk that your phone will run out of battery, it’s vital that we don’t become too reliant on them.

Here’s my thoughts on being resilient in the absence of a map. If you’ve got any additional thoughts or experiences, drop them in the comments box below.

  • Ask someone – it always makes me happy when I’m able to direct someone in the right direction
  • Educated guess – I generally know the broad direction that I’m travelling, or the direction of home – I’ve been known to walk in a direction until I get to a known landmark or road

Going back to the Scouts, given their motto is “Be Prepared”, perhaps there are other scouting skills which could have a resilience application. I’ll have a look at what other badges I could award myself soon!

 

Image source: The Scout Association

#gpdrr13 – my thoughts

#gpdrr13 – my thoughts

Reading Time: 2 minutes

[I’ll be adding to this post as the #gpdrr13 continues during this week]

I was introduced to the Hyogo Framework for Action many years ago by Phillip Buckle, but working in the UK, I haven’t had much call to use it directly. However, the Civil Contigencies Act is a clear example of where legislation has enabled some action towards acheivement of the Millennium Development Goals.

gpdrr

Interestingly, it seems like legislation isn’t the only aspect whcih seems to influence the ability of countries to implement HFA; with discussions at the plenary session of the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction this afternoon, revealing some other challenges. I was however, more interested to see the future direction of HFA2, and specifically, I noted the following.

Transboundary Risks

Margareta Wahlström mentioned that the most used word of the day was local – whilst that’s undoubtedly important, there should also be a recognition of ‘global village’ risks.

In July 2012 the Emilia Romagna earthquake hit the headlines for a variety of reasons. One of which was a shortage of dialysis tubing in the UK as a result of disruption to manufacturing in Italy. So in addition to our systems being complexly linked to each other, they’re also increasingly linked internationally.

Another example of this was the recent horse meat scandal. It quickly became apparent that the products that we buy on the shelves have often travelled far and wide. This complexity is a feature of modern life but understanding it means that we’re better prepared when there is a problem.

Role of Science

There’s that old addage that to manage something you have to be able to measure it. Data accessibility is a considerable challenge in disaster management. There are attempts to classify and codify disasters and record their impact in terms of fatalities and economic cost. However they’re all open to interpretation (often being drawn from secondary sources or entries only included where a nation has declared a National Emergency), and it’s by no means a complete record.

This makes the process of risk assessment and learning from past incidents challenging.

Data and science were also mentioned in terms of developing models experiments, tools and technology to assist in prevention, detection, response and recovery. And the need to integrate human sciences as well as physical sciences was specifically highlighted.

Community

I think it’s a given that we all recognise that disasters affect communities. What seems to be more challenging is to engage those communities in disaster risk reduction work. If experience internationally is anything like my experience in the UK, there’s actually a precursor question about the identification of these communities.

It was noted that there should be effort towards developing closer association between public and private sector and I was interested in a presentation from Japanese colleagues regarding the role of sport in developing resilience.

The other aspect that was flagged for inclusion of minority groups, gender issues, and impacts of demographic changes to be at the centre of disaster risk reduction policies and HFA2.

Anytown Unleashed

Anytown Unleashed

Reading Time: < 1 minute

For the last 4 months I’ve been spearheading a project known as Anytown. The project aims to help develop better understanding and awareness of how different ‘city systems’ all interlink. Today I unleashed my baby into the world at Defra’s Community Resilience & Climate Change Workshop. Read more on the project below.

When you throw a stone in a pond, ripples propagate from the centre. Similarly in emergencies and disasters, impacts of an initiating event can propagate and cause a cascade of consequences. There are many examples of this both in the UK and overseas, yet there has been little formal consideration of it to date.

The intention of Anytown is to simplify reality and model the interconnections and interdependencies between systems in order to provide a greater level of awareness of these potential impacts.

During my studies we had an assignment involving ‘Complex Cascading Disasters’ and I remember at the time, that there was little readily available research in this area. That situation hasn’t changed significantly so in February, I coordinated a number of workshops bringing together over 100 representatives from 52 organisations to discuss and harvest their knowledge and experience.

Looking back to my ripple analogy earlier, from the workshop data I created ‘ripple diagrams’ which demonstrate how consequences cascade from an incident through various sectors.

Anytown is now free into the world. This is exciting as one of the key aspects that I realised during the development is that a model is only as good as the information that feeds it – so now many more people have the opportunity to contribute. I’ll bring occasional updates on the progress of Anytown as I move from the model development (hopefully) towards visualisation and simulation.

The ‘work’ version of this post is over here

Influ-Venn-Za

Influ-Venn-Za

Reading Time: < 1 minute

I’m all about infographics (who isn’t these days?) and recently found this one which describes who can catch the many strains of flu.

Following a recent post on the emerging H7N9 influenza situation in the Far East I thought I’d just post this as a quick update. Enjoy!

Influ-Venn-Za


Image Source: informationisbeautiful.net

 

Rooted in Resilience

Rooted in Resilience

Reading Time: 2 minutes

This was originally posted on the London Prepared Blog, I’ve slightly adapted the original to cater for the audience of this blog.

This week is London Tree Week, part of RE:LEAF – the initiative to help protect and increase the number of trees in London.London park

Far from just standing there, trees offer many benefits from a resilience perspective. Here I investigate the important role that trees play in developing our own resilience to emergencies:

  • Trees stabilise our soils and slopes – the root systems of trees, and other plants, hold together soils which would otherwise be gradually washed away by rainwater. Elsewhere in the world, trees offer protection against avalanches and landslips.
  • Trees reduce flash flooding– the tree canopy intercepts rainfall which reduces the rate at which rainwater hits the ground, this reduces the likelihood of surface water flooding.
  • Trees provide a buffer to extreme temperatures – on average forested land is 2-4 degrees cooler in the summer and 1-2 degrees warmer in the winter. This means they are natural helpers in our preparations to reduce the impact of Heatwaves and episodes of snow and ice.
  • Trees reduce wind speeds – which can be a major source of building damage. Thanks to building regulations, large-scale damage or destruction is unlikely to occur as a result of wind speeds in the UK, but is has caused issues internationally.
  • Trees reduce pollution – as well as their role in converting carbon dioxide to oxygen (which is important in reducing the rate of climate change), tress also help remove sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxide, which are major components of acid rain. Have you noticed those trees with the patchy bark? The London Plane tree is type of sycamore which was extensively planted in Victorian London. When the pores of the tree trunk get clogged with pollutants, the tree sheds its bark, escorting the pollutants to the sewer system.

Downed trees and branches can impact on power lines or block roads, which can cause disruption. However it’s worth thinking about how much worse the disruption or damage could be if the tree hadn’t taken the brunt of the force.

For balance, it’s important to realise that trees can also contribute to, or provide a habitat for, some risks:

  • In late 2012 scientists at the Food & Environment Research Agency (FERA) confirmed a number of cases of Ash Dieback, which can cause tree death, across Norfolk, Suffolk, Kent and Essex
  • In 2006 the Oak Processionary Moth caterpillar was confirmed on trees in the London Borough of Richmond following an incidence of skin rash symptoms among local residents. There has since been a spread of this caterpillar to different areas of London.

However, if we make sure that trees are properly looked after and maintained, then they offer a range of hidden benefits which make us more resilient to many kinds of emergency.

 

Image Source: mtthwhgn.com

Mohs Scale of (CT) Hardness

Mohs Scale of (CT) Hardness

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Remember when you were at school and you did experiments? Those were the days (although the workbench in Mr Stanley’s lab never really recovered from one involving magnesium).

Moh

Yesterday I attended Counter Terrorism Expo 2013, along with several hundred other people from a whole variety of industries and organisations. Enthusiastic marketing materials meant I had a preconception about what I would be seeing…this expectation, sady was not met. However, it did look like lots of people had managed to find jobs where they continue to be able to perform experiments!

I lost count of the numbers of panes of ‘blast and balistic proof’ glass and ‘Hostile Vehcile Mitigation’ measures I saw, but it paled in comparison to the miles of intruder-resistant fencing.

I’m not suggesting that these measures don’t serve useful purposes; I’m sure that many an incident has been prevented, or it’s impact reduced, by the presence of these features. But what I was surprised at, was the absolute obsession on physical security.

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This brings me back to German geologist and mineralogist Friedrich Mohs and his Scale of Hardness…

In my opinion, Counter Terrorism interventions fall along a continuum of hardness (yes, that’s a term I’ve coined myself). It’s perfectly fine having fences and CCTV, but that’s treating the symptoms rather than the underlying causes.

I was surprised by yesterday’s exhibition, that there was a complete omission of some of the softer aspects of countering terrorist activity. Interventions such as the promotion of democracy, economic development, education, engagement and counter-radicalization could all have useful applications. In addition, monitoring community tensions and sentiment could provide the ‘canary in the mine’ for the implementation or activation of some of the harder approaches.

Trade shows and exhibitions serve a certain purpose, but it’s important when attending them to remember that the shiny toys and experiments performed in front of your eyes are just one of many soloutions.

How the papers saw…Boston

How the papers saw…Boston

Reading Time: 3 minutes

I’ve already expressed my thoughts on the social media response to the Boston Marathon explosions on Monday. However, in the name of balance (and following Kenneth‘s lead) I thought I’d take a look at how newspapers covered the Boston story.

The most obvious advantage of social media is that it is ‘of the moment’, allowing near-real-time information flow, something impossible for a newspapers in hard copy format. Whilst no longer carved in stone, printed papers struggle with a publication frequency greater than morning, afternoon and evening edition (with most just opting for daily or weekly); but they do pull out all the stops for breaking news such as the Bostson incidents.

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What newspapers can’t deliver in speed, they do make up for in tracking down experts from far and wide to offer opinion and insight. The delay between incident and publication also allows for some synthesis of ‘know facts’ which can make news easier to digest.

With many newspapers moving to online editions (mostly behind paywalls though) there is a distinct blurring between Fleet St and Cyberspace, but one hings for sure, the internat allows us all to get our news faster, and in non traditional ways. As emergency planners it’s critical that we keep up with this demand to ensure the public involved in eemrgencies get information via the most appropraite medium at the right time.

In any case, hopefully “How the papers saw…” won’t be a frequent blog title…

Image Sources: Daily Mail (I refuse to link to their content) or online editions of newspaper shown

Use social media, but use it wisely

Use social media, but use it wisely

Reading Time: 3 minutes

I initially wrote, and published, this post yesterday evening as the events were unfolding. This morning, news was still coming out of Boston and appearing on social media, so I’ve just made one or two running edits, in italics, to keep it current.

SMEM-e1345210652250

I don’t intend to make light of the coordinated series of explosions in Boston, but I wanted to talk about one aspect of social media, the ‘etiquette of online response’ rather than the events themselves, which the world has just witnessed.

I joined FriendsReunited in 2002. I tried joining Facebook in 2004, when it was still restricted to universities in the States. I joined MySpace in 2005 and was then a relatively early adopter of Twitter in 2009. There have been other formats that have been so fleeting I don’t even remember them. So, I’m confident in saying that I know my way round the various social mediums and in 2011 Emer Coleman (previously of Government Digital Service) referred to me as a “digital native”.

The advent of social media, and the internet more generally, has, without question, changed the way in which I consume information. I’m not alone in this, and social media offers much more than a mechanism for posting pictures of what you’ve had for dinner (although I have nothing against it’s use for that purpose).

But I do find social media interesting during a ‘Breaking News’ story. (Update: the first time I remember encountering this ‘etiquette’ issue was 2010’s Roaul Moat story.)

On twitter we have the hashtag and the humble retweet, which I think are magnificent functions. The Hastag (e.g.#SMEM) allows ‘searches’ of linked tweets, making finding related information easier. The retweet then allows for official and verified messages to be shared to a much wider audience. Whilst twitter has it’s downsides (speculation and subjectivity), I think it’s far more effective. However, on the other hand, my Facebook news feed was jam packed with either people attempting to break the news themselves, or expressing their deep emotional outpourings to affected families. I find both of these considerably less helpful than a quick RT.

It’s simply not instinctive to me to head to Facebook in the ‘initial phase’. I just don’t expect people that I went to primary school with to have the latest information (maybe I didn’t go to school with the right people?!). Obviously, it goes without saying, that this is not about Facebook as a platform, but about how people use it.

Conversely, my twitter feed was filled with some fantastic RTs of relevant news agencies, official feeds and bystander pictures and videos. I didn’t follow @Boston_Police before today, and I doubt I’ll ever really need their day to day updates, but they’re a demonstration of how twitter can be used to spread news and provide reassurance. Yes, I’ve seen one or two images which are certainly shocking, and I think a degree of sensitivity is needed for these graphic images (Update: It can be distressing to see people who have been badly injured, and perhaps the media, and all of us need a bit more self-regulation when sharing images). However, whilst they might show upsetting scenes (including this video), I personally find them preferable to the banality of sympathy that I witnessed last night on Facebook.

Surely it’s a given that we are appalled by this type of incident, why do you need to let your friends know you’re shocked ? In an emergency people who have been affected (either directly or distally) are desperately searching for useful information…yes, be sad and donate to relief funds, but don’t occupy the news feeds of people who are looking for information. This particularly important the closer the events are to home.

That said, there isn’t an instruction book, and only a degree of etiquette has evolved as the platforms have developed. What’s your view? Do you see a difference in the way people use different mediums? What works and what doesn’t? How can we make the best use of these useful communication tools?

 

Image Credit: Awareforum.org