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Author: mtthwhgn

#gpdrr13 – my thoughts

#gpdrr13 – my thoughts

Reading Time: 2 minutes

[I’ll be adding to this post as the #gpdrr13 continues during this week]

I was introduced to the Hyogo Framework for Action many years ago by Phillip Buckle, but working in the UK, I haven’t had much call to use it directly. However, the Civil Contigencies Act is a clear example of where legislation has enabled some action towards acheivement of the Millennium Development Goals.

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Interestingly, it seems like legislation isn’t the only aspect whcih seems to influence the ability of countries to implement HFA; with discussions at the plenary session of the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction this afternoon, revealing some other challenges. I was however, more interested to see the future direction of HFA2, and specifically, I noted the following.

Transboundary Risks

Margareta Wahlström mentioned that the most used word of the day was local – whilst that’s undoubtedly important, there should also be a recognition of ‘global village’ risks.

In July 2012 the Emilia Romagna earthquake hit the headlines for a variety of reasons. One of which was a shortage of dialysis tubing in the UK as a result of disruption to manufacturing in Italy. So in addition to our systems being complexly linked to each other, they’re also increasingly linked internationally.

Another example of this was the recent horse meat scandal. It quickly became apparent that the products that we buy on the shelves have often travelled far and wide. This complexity is a feature of modern life but understanding it means that we’re better prepared when there is a problem.

Role of Science

There’s that old addage that to manage something you have to be able to measure it. Data accessibility is a considerable challenge in disaster management. There are attempts to classify and codify disasters and record their impact in terms of fatalities and economic cost. However they’re all open to interpretation (often being drawn from secondary sources or entries only included where a nation has declared a National Emergency), and it’s by no means a complete record.

This makes the process of risk assessment and learning from past incidents challenging.

Data and science were also mentioned in terms of developing models experiments, tools and technology to assist in prevention, detection, response and recovery. And the need to integrate human sciences as well as physical sciences was specifically highlighted.

Community

I think it’s a given that we all recognise that disasters affect communities. What seems to be more challenging is to engage those communities in disaster risk reduction work. If experience internationally is anything like my experience in the UK, there’s actually a precursor question about the identification of these communities.

It was noted that there should be effort towards developing closer association between public and private sector and I was interested in a presentation from Japanese colleagues regarding the role of sport in developing resilience.

The other aspect that was flagged for inclusion of minority groups, gender issues, and impacts of demographic changes to be at the centre of disaster risk reduction policies and HFA2.

Anytown Unleashed

Anytown Unleashed

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For the last 4 months I’ve been spearheading a project known as Anytown. The project aims to help develop better understanding and awareness of how different ‘city systems’ all interlink. Today I unleashed my baby into the world at Defra’s Community Resilience & Climate Change Workshop. Read more on the project below.

When you throw a stone in a pond, ripples propagate from the centre. Similarly in emergencies and disasters, impacts of an initiating event can propagate and cause a cascade of consequences. There are many examples of this both in the UK and overseas, yet there has been little formal consideration of it to date.

The intention of Anytown is to simplify reality and model the interconnections and interdependencies between systems in order to provide a greater level of awareness of these potential impacts.

During my studies we had an assignment involving ‘Complex Cascading Disasters’ and I remember at the time, that there was little readily available research in this area. That situation hasn’t changed significantly so in February, I coordinated a number of workshops bringing together over 100 representatives from 52 organisations to discuss and harvest their knowledge and experience.

Looking back to my ripple analogy earlier, from the workshop data I created ‘ripple diagrams’ which demonstrate how consequences cascade from an incident through various sectors.

Anytown is now free into the world. This is exciting as one of the key aspects that I realised during the development is that a model is only as good as the information that feeds it – so now many more people have the opportunity to contribute. I’ll bring occasional updates on the progress of Anytown as I move from the model development (hopefully) towards visualisation and simulation.

The ‘work’ version of this post is over here

Influ-Venn-Za

Influ-Venn-Za

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I’m all about infographics (who isn’t these days?) and recently found this one which describes who can catch the many strains of flu.

Following a recent post on the emerging H7N9 influenza situation in the Far East I thought I’d just post this as a quick update. Enjoy!

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Image Source: informationisbeautiful.net

 

Rooted in Resilience

Rooted in Resilience

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This was originally posted on the London Prepared Blog, I’ve slightly adapted the original to cater for the audience of this blog.

This week is London Tree Week, part of RE:LEAF – the initiative to help protect and increase the number of trees in London.London park

Far from just standing there, trees offer many benefits from a resilience perspective. Here I investigate the important role that trees play in developing our own resilience to emergencies:

  • Trees stabilise our soils and slopes – the root systems of trees, and other plants, hold together soils which would otherwise be gradually washed away by rainwater. Elsewhere in the world, trees offer protection against avalanches and landslips.
  • Trees reduce flash flooding– the tree canopy intercepts rainfall which reduces the rate at which rainwater hits the ground, this reduces the likelihood of surface water flooding.
  • Trees provide a buffer to extreme temperatures – on average forested land is 2-4 degrees cooler in the summer and 1-2 degrees warmer in the winter. This means they are natural helpers in our preparations to reduce the impact of Heatwaves and episodes of snow and ice.
  • Trees reduce wind speeds – which can be a major source of building damage. Thanks to building regulations, large-scale damage or destruction is unlikely to occur as a result of wind speeds in the UK, but is has caused issues internationally.
  • Trees reduce pollution – as well as their role in converting carbon dioxide to oxygen (which is important in reducing the rate of climate change), tress also help remove sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxide, which are major components of acid rain. Have you noticed those trees with the patchy bark? The London Plane tree is type of sycamore which was extensively planted in Victorian London. When the pores of the tree trunk get clogged with pollutants, the tree sheds its bark, escorting the pollutants to the sewer system.

Downed trees and branches can impact on power lines or block roads, which can cause disruption. However it’s worth thinking about how much worse the disruption or damage could be if the tree hadn’t taken the brunt of the force.

For balance, it’s important to realise that trees can also contribute to, or provide a habitat for, some risks:

  • In late 2012 scientists at the Food & Environment Research Agency (FERA) confirmed a number of cases of Ash Dieback, which can cause tree death, across Norfolk, Suffolk, Kent and Essex
  • In 2006 the Oak Processionary Moth caterpillar was confirmed on trees in the London Borough of Richmond following an incidence of skin rash symptoms among local residents. There has since been a spread of this caterpillar to different areas of London.

However, if we make sure that trees are properly looked after and maintained, then they offer a range of hidden benefits which make us more resilient to many kinds of emergency.

 

Image Source: mtthwhgn.com

Mohs Scale of (CT) Hardness

Mohs Scale of (CT) Hardness

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Remember when you were at school and you did experiments? Those were the days (although the workbench in Mr Stanley’s lab never really recovered from one involving magnesium).

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Yesterday I attended Counter Terrorism Expo 2013, along with several hundred other people from a whole variety of industries and organisations. Enthusiastic marketing materials meant I had a preconception about what I would be seeing…this expectation, sady was not met. However, it did look like lots of people had managed to find jobs where they continue to be able to perform experiments!

I lost count of the numbers of panes of ‘blast and balistic proof’ glass and ‘Hostile Vehcile Mitigation’ measures I saw, but it paled in comparison to the miles of intruder-resistant fencing.

I’m not suggesting that these measures don’t serve useful purposes; I’m sure that many an incident has been prevented, or it’s impact reduced, by the presence of these features. But what I was surprised at, was the absolute obsession on physical security.

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This brings me back to German geologist and mineralogist Friedrich Mohs and his Scale of Hardness…

In my opinion, Counter Terrorism interventions fall along a continuum of hardness (yes, that’s a term I’ve coined myself). It’s perfectly fine having fences and CCTV, but that’s treating the symptoms rather than the underlying causes.

I was surprised by yesterday’s exhibition, that there was a complete omission of some of the softer aspects of countering terrorist activity. Interventions such as the promotion of democracy, economic development, education, engagement and counter-radicalization could all have useful applications. In addition, monitoring community tensions and sentiment could provide the ‘canary in the mine’ for the implementation or activation of some of the harder approaches.

Trade shows and exhibitions serve a certain purpose, but it’s important when attending them to remember that the shiny toys and experiments performed in front of your eyes are just one of many soloutions.

How the papers saw…Boston

How the papers saw…Boston

Reading Time: 3 minutes

I’ve already expressed my thoughts on the social media response to the Boston Marathon explosions on Monday. However, in the name of balance (and following Kenneth‘s lead) I thought I’d take a look at how newspapers covered the Boston story.

The most obvious advantage of social media is that it is ‘of the moment’, allowing near-real-time information flow, something impossible for a newspapers in hard copy format. Whilst no longer carved in stone, printed papers struggle with a publication frequency greater than morning, afternoon and evening edition (with most just opting for daily or weekly); but they do pull out all the stops for breaking news such as the Bostson incidents.

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What newspapers can’t deliver in speed, they do make up for in tracking down experts from far and wide to offer opinion and insight. The delay between incident and publication also allows for some synthesis of ‘know facts’ which can make news easier to digest.

With many newspapers moving to online editions (mostly behind paywalls though) there is a distinct blurring between Fleet St and Cyberspace, but one hings for sure, the internat allows us all to get our news faster, and in non traditional ways. As emergency planners it’s critical that we keep up with this demand to ensure the public involved in eemrgencies get information via the most appropraite medium at the right time.

In any case, hopefully “How the papers saw…” won’t be a frequent blog title…

Image Sources: Daily Mail (I refuse to link to their content) or online editions of newspaper shown

Use social media, but use it wisely

Use social media, but use it wisely

Reading Time: 3 minutes

I initially wrote, and published, this post yesterday evening as the events were unfolding. This morning, news was still coming out of Boston and appearing on social media, so I’ve just made one or two running edits, in italics, to keep it current.

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I don’t intend to make light of the coordinated series of explosions in Boston, but I wanted to talk about one aspect of social media, the ‘etiquette of online response’ rather than the events themselves, which the world has just witnessed.

I joined FriendsReunited in 2002. I tried joining Facebook in 2004, when it was still restricted to universities in the States. I joined MySpace in 2005 and was then a relatively early adopter of Twitter in 2009. There have been other formats that have been so fleeting I don’t even remember them. So, I’m confident in saying that I know my way round the various social mediums and in 2011 Emer Coleman (previously of Government Digital Service) referred to me as a “digital native”.

The advent of social media, and the internet more generally, has, without question, changed the way in which I consume information. I’m not alone in this, and social media offers much more than a mechanism for posting pictures of what you’ve had for dinner (although I have nothing against it’s use for that purpose).

But I do find social media interesting during a ‘Breaking News’ story. (Update: the first time I remember encountering this ‘etiquette’ issue was 2010’s Roaul Moat story.)

On twitter we have the hashtag and the humble retweet, which I think are magnificent functions. The Hastag (e.g.#SMEM) allows ‘searches’ of linked tweets, making finding related information easier. The retweet then allows for official and verified messages to be shared to a much wider audience. Whilst twitter has it’s downsides (speculation and subjectivity), I think it’s far more effective. However, on the other hand, my Facebook news feed was jam packed with either people attempting to break the news themselves, or expressing their deep emotional outpourings to affected families. I find both of these considerably less helpful than a quick RT.

It’s simply not instinctive to me to head to Facebook in the ‘initial phase’. I just don’t expect people that I went to primary school with to have the latest information (maybe I didn’t go to school with the right people?!). Obviously, it goes without saying, that this is not about Facebook as a platform, but about how people use it.

Conversely, my twitter feed was filled with some fantastic RTs of relevant news agencies, official feeds and bystander pictures and videos. I didn’t follow @Boston_Police before today, and I doubt I’ll ever really need their day to day updates, but they’re a demonstration of how twitter can be used to spread news and provide reassurance. Yes, I’ve seen one or two images which are certainly shocking, and I think a degree of sensitivity is needed for these graphic images (Update: It can be distressing to see people who have been badly injured, and perhaps the media, and all of us need a bit more self-regulation when sharing images). However, whilst they might show upsetting scenes (including this video), I personally find them preferable to the banality of sympathy that I witnessed last night on Facebook.

Surely it’s a given that we are appalled by this type of incident, why do you need to let your friends know you’re shocked ? In an emergency people who have been affected (either directly or distally) are desperately searching for useful information…yes, be sad and donate to relief funds, but don’t occupy the news feeds of people who are looking for information. This particularly important the closer the events are to home.

That said, there isn’t an instruction book, and only a degree of etiquette has evolved as the platforms have developed. What’s your view? Do you see a difference in the way people use different mediums? What works and what doesn’t? How can we make the best use of these useful communication tools?

 

Image Credit: Awareforum.org

What’s in a name?

What’s in a name?

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Don’t worry, my knowledge of Shakespeare runs to just two quotes (both from Romeo and Juliet). David Alexander posted recently about the origins of the word ‘Resilience’, however, today I caught a blog post from Durham IHRR and it got me to thinking…does it matter what we call what we do?

In the office we often have conversations about what ‘Resilience’ means. I think we’ve finalled settled on a definition, based on the UK Civil Protection Lexicon, which includes the ability to detect, prevent, handle and recover from disruptive challenges. Whether this is my preferred definition or not isn’t so important (I’d actually have prefered something more reflective of the Latin eymological root of the word resilire “to rebound, recoil”).

I found the Google Ngram graph for ‘resilience’ interesting, although the scale of the graph probably runs the risk of us reading too much into the patterns. The period of growth since the 1960’s is particularly interesting and probably reflects the term being used by a wider range of fields (ecology, psychology, climate science etc).

Resilience 1800-2008 Google Ngram

Time Magaine called it the buzzword of 2013, so I took to Google Trends to see if there were any more recent pattens. Whilst there is a definate upward trend, to me it’s still inconclusive.

But the actual issue here, is does it matter? Call it resilience, call it Emergency Planning, call it Disaster Management, and the rose still smells the same, even if it doesn’t smell sweet.

I’ve always found definitions restrictive. Perhaps embracing the malleability and imprecision of the definitions could be a good thing? After all, in the event of an emergency/disaster/crisis/catastrophe/act of god, do we, as individuals or communities really care about definitions?

Guess who’s back, back again…

Guess who’s back, back again…

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piggy

Actually, that should be guess who never really went away. After 16 months of pandemic activity during 2009-10 rates of infection declined, vaccines were made available and the story received fewer and fewer column inches.

Influenza though, hasn’t gone away. Occasional peaks in influenza activity have been observed since then, however anyone with a Google Alert for ‘pandemic flu’ would have noticed, as I did, a relative inundation today; with reports out of China of a strain of flu previously undetected in humans.

The H7N9 strain appears to have been initially identified in eastern Jiangning District of China, and the reports that I’ve read so far (news wires or machine translated Chinese pages – full list below) seem to indicate a small number of cases with no epidemiological connection, which could indicate that the virus has already started to spread.

Many of the initial stories were based on anonymous sources or messages on social media sites (which make validation tricky), however as ‘more official’ sources come forward the story is gaining traction.  That said, the current message from the WHO is of no evidence of human-to-human transmission, so there certainly no need for any alarm at this stage.

From my experience, with what started of as “Mexican Flu” and later became “Swine Flu” in 2009, flu is a very tricky virus for global surveillance teams to track, and there are often outbreaks which look significant yet disappear almost as quickly as they arrived. It’s perhaps too soon to say whether this new starin represents a risk, however it does serve as a reminder that the potential for a flu pandemic is real, and although out of the headlines, hasn’t subsided.

A lot of these outbreaks come to nothing, and this latest example could turn out to be just another ‘footnotes in the varied history of bird flu’ (to borrow a phrase from Micheal over at A Flu Diary). However, I follow all of these stories, as speed of identification and reaction to outbreaks puts organisations on the leading edge and better able to initiate plans and take preventative actions.

If nothing else, this has given me an idea for another blog post about tools and processes for situational awareness…keep your eyes peeled for that one!

Sources

Image Credit: Zap2It (chosen as a result of the Bloomberg headline!)

Resilience Fieldtrip 2013

Resilience Fieldtrip 2013

Reading Time: 4 minutes

Did you notice the lack of blog posts over the last few weeks? Well, here’s a long read to make up for it (and official work post over here)!

I’ve just got back from my holiday to Iceland, New York and San Francisco (which, right from the outset, is quite the Disaster Tour!) and I managed to meet up with some resilience colleagues along the way. Each of these places has a strong history of disasters so it was a great opportunity to investigate similarities and differences.

Regardless of where we are in the world, or what our risks include, resilience specialists face common challenges. Whilst volcanic eruptions, super storms and earthquakes feature low down on UK risk registers, I could relate to the complexities of working with large organisations and the grey-space between politics, strategy and operations.

I was interested to learn about emergent community responses to volcanic activity, and how that is being encouraged in Iceland. The impact of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption in the UK (see below) was mainly confined to economic losses (estimated at US $5bn), however, future eruptions could have more direct impacts, both for Iceland and internationally. In fact, I was surprised by just how much ash is in the atmosphere, even in non-eruption conditions (it had recently snowed so it was easy to spot the ash accumulations).

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In New York, signs of Hurricane Sandy were still evident. I was told about the phenomenal coordination effort by City officials both during and in the recovery phase, which far exceeded my expectations. However, after nearly 6 months, there are still signs of the impact the storm had on Manhattan; escalators awaiting repair, felled trees and signs explaining that public art had been removed for restoration. This demonstrates the length of time required to recover from incidents, and I shared experience from the 2011 Public Disorder which took considerable time to get back to normal, and indeed some of the premises affected are still unoccupied as we approach the second anniversary.

The facilities of the New York Office for Emergency Management were impressive, and outstripped any that I have seen in the UK. The department was directly affected by 9/11 and subsequently relocated to new facilities in Brooklyn and I was lucky enough to get a tour of their award winning emergency operations centre; which although similar in principle had some marked differences to UK operations rooms.

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As I was wandering around Manhattan, there were traces of emergency planning from days gone by. NYC fallout shelters have long been decommissioned, although it’s estimated that there were up to 200,000 such designated facilities by the mid 1960s. Whilst the specifics of the response to such an incident may have evolved, it’s a reminder that there has been a sustained threat to many places around the world.

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The final leg of my travels took me to San Francisco. It’s been some time since they’ve experienced a significant earthquake, however they take their preparations extremely seriously, and signs of the 1906 quake are evident in their approach to resilience and land use planning in the city. Much of the city was destroyed by the earthquake and subsequent fire – the area highlighted in red on the map below shows the areas affected.

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Indeed, even their offices are designed to withstand high magnitude earth movements using a what was described to me as a simple roller system (although I’m sure the reality is far more complicated!).

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As well as being affected directly by earthquakes, San Francisco is also at high risk of the after effects of submarine earthquakes – tsunamis. There has been considerable investment to protect vulnerable locations, prepare emergency services and raise public awareness. In fact, this week 24-30 March is Tsunami Awareness Week 2013 and there are some good resources and links to local activities listed.

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Another commonality which struck me, was that all of the places I visited were beginning to think seriously about the implications of climate change. Whether it affects the rate of glacial melting (Iceland) or sea level rise (New York, San Francisco), it’s an area which is increasingly being picked up on the resilience radar. Rather than enter into my thoughts on this issue here, I’ll save that for a future post.

I’d be very interested in the thoughts of any international colleagues reading this blog on their view of the similarities and differences in approach. I decided that I quite like field trips, so if you’d like to invite me to your country please get in touch!